A $27bn hole: Zelensky warns Ukraine could run short of drones this winter

What happened

On September 25, President Volodymyr Zelensky explained to journalists what lies behind Ukraine’s $27 billion defence budget deficit and why it has to be closed now. Part of the money is needed to pay soldiers, he said, but most of it is for drones, missiles and supplies for the army.

The real problem is timing. About a third of the sum, perhaps slightly more, is earmarked for drones for January, February and March. “If we do not place the orders and make the payments in October and November, we will face serious challenges in January and February, above all,” Zelensky said.

Who is expected to help

Zelensky said he had discussed the gap with businesses, financial groups, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and described the response from the EU and the IMF as positive and constructive. “Everyone understands that Ukraine cannot be left on its own,” he said.

He was careful to separate the two, though: the IMF has nothing to do with military support. From the European Commission, he is asking for the second tranche of the 90-billion package to be brought forward so that drones and missiles for January and February can be secured in time.

The prime minister, the finance minister and the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service will work out how to cover the gap. The Kyiv Independent names them as Serhii Koretskyi, Serhii Marchenko and Rustem Umerov, who oversees the Drone Deal initiative. Some of the money could come through Drone Deal agreements, under which Ukraine cooperates with partner countries on drone technology. A meeting with the European team is planned soon, either in Ukraine or in Belgium.

The government’s plan

Later that day, Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi chaired a meeting on financing the additional $27 billion defence request. Part of the money is needed right away, he said, as prepayment for deliveries due in the first quarter of 2027.

The plan has several strands. Some of the sum is to be covered from domestic sources by reshuffling money within existing programmes, a task for the finance ministry. Ukraine is also counting on the EU and is holding direct talks at defence-ministry level with NATO countries and other partners. At the same time, Kyiv needs to unblock external financing that is tied to commitments made to international partners, which means passing specific laws and decisions. Koretskyi said the government works with parliament on this every day.

Why it matters

According to The Kyiv Independent, officials describe the current budget situation as Ukraine’s worst since 2022. Earlier in September, Koretskyi warned that delays in parliament could put a significant part of $29.5 billion in international financing at risk. EU officials say Kyiv must deliver the reforms agreed with partners to keep receiving tranches.

As the president explained, drones for January to March have to be ordered and paid for in advance, in October and November. That is why a winter problem has to be solved in the autumn.

What next

On the same day, EU member states agreed to release €6.6 billion from the European Peace Facility. Euronews notes that the decision came as Ukraine faces a shortfall in its defence ministry budget, and that the European Commission and the IMF are in talks with the Ukrainian government on a possible solution. The coming weeks will show whether the money can be found before the end of November, the deadline the president outlined.